ProofOfReturns
Method

How a check works

The three steps, what separates a check from an explainer, and how to read the Proof Stack at the top of a check.

01 The three steps

The three steps — the same ones on our why-we-exist page:

  1. Catch the claim. We write it down exactly as it was made — "this strategy returns 1% a day," "gold protects you from inflation," "this fund delivers consistent monthly income" — with no convenient rewording.
  2. Ask what would prove it. A real, auditable track record. Fees and slippage included. Out-of-sample. Risk-adjusted. All the results, not the highlight reel.
  3. Answer it in public. We publish what the evidence shows, whichever way it points — and when a claim actually holds up, we'll say so first.
02 Two kinds of piece

What separates a check from an explainer

  • A check answers one specific claim, such as "gold protects you from inflation." It splits the claim into the promises it rests on, sets a bar for each, and gives a straight answer, the Proof Stack and how sure we are.
  • An explainer maps the terrain instead: what an index is, what a fee costs you in euros, why a backtest can look brilliant and predict almost nothing. It isn't adjudicating anyone's promise, so it carries no Proof Stack.
03 Reading a Proof Stack — take gold

Figure 1 is the Proof Stack from our check of "gold protects you from inflation." The bar for each coin, the working and the sources are under "How we checked" in the check itself.

The Proof Stack from the gold check: three coins, each drawn as a stack whose filling shows how far the evidence carries it. 'Over the very long run an ounce keeps its value' is a fully filled amber stack. 'It keeps it over the years you actually hold it' and 'It protects just when inflation runs hot' are each half-filled: the bottom two coins amber, the top two dotted outlines. A short line under each stack says what does survive. The count reads: promised 3, proven 1, partly 2.
Figure 1. The Proof Stack from the gold check, where it is Figure 2 — promised 3 · proven 1 · partly 2. Each coin names one thing that would have to be true for "gold protects you from inflation" to hold the way people mean it, and each has an explicit bar. A filled coin clears its bar. A half-filled coin is a promise the evidence carries on average or in part, but not reliably enough for a whole coin — or, as with the third coin here, a promise that clears its bar but leaves us too unsure of the finding to fill it. How sure of each finding: fairly sure for the filled coin, not very sure for the second, barely sure for the third — and that is about the findings themselves, not about how big any return is.