Library

Everything we've published

Two kinds of thing live here. A check takes one investment claim and runs it against the real evidence, with every step shown. An explainer lays out how something actually works, so the next claim is easier to judge. Every card says which one it is — that difference is the whole promise, so we never hide it.

Kind

What's coming

The queue, in the order it will appear — one piece a week, alternating. Titles only, because none of these exist yet: we publish when the work holds up, not when the calendar says so.

Check Up next

"Gold protects you from inflation."

Explainer Then

Fees, in euros instead of percentages

Check Then

"This fund pays a consistent monthly income."

Explainer Then

How to read a fund factsheet

What separates a check from an explainer

It's not length or effort, it's what the piece is allowed to claim.

  • A check answers one specific claim — "this fund delivers consistent monthly income," "gold protects you from inflation" — and goes through the full machinery: two readers pulling the numbers out of the sources independently, a reconciliation of every difference, and three reviewers whose job is to find what's wrong before you do. It ends with a straight answer, the Proof Stack showing how much of the promise is actually covered, and how sure we are.
  • An explainer maps the terrain instead: how inflation eats a return, what interest rates move, why time horizon matters. Sourced and checked, but it isn't adjudicating anyone's promise, so it carries no Proof Stack.

How a check works

The same three steps every time — the same ones on our why-we-exist page:

  1. Catch the claim. We write it down exactly as it was made — "this strategy returns 1% a day," "gold protects you from inflation," "this fund delivers consistent monthly income" — with no convenient rewording.
  2. Ask what would prove it. A real, auditable track record. Fees and slippage included. Out-of-sample. Risk-adjusted. All the results, not the highlight reel.
  3. Answer it in public. We publish what the evidence shows, whichever way it points — and when a claim actually holds up, we'll say so first.

And after that

Further down the queue, in no promised order:

  • Fees, in euros instead of percentages — why a number that sounds small isn't.
  • Track-record and backtest claims — and how easily a great backtest is faked by accident.
  • "Beat the market" newsletters — checked the way the gurus were.
  • How to read a fund factsheet, and survivorship bias with the funds that vanished.
Got a claim you want checked? Send it to info@proofofreturns.com. The more specific and the more it's being sold as certain, the better.
Not ours, but worth your time: the tools we actually use and a short shelf of evidence-based books live on Resources.
How to read anything here: we try to state what would prove a claim, then show what the strongest evidence available actually supports — including when it's messy or points the other way. If we ever get something wrong, we'd rather fix it in public than defend it.
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